Pink Fire Pointer July 2011

Macroeconomic Assumptions Revised 2011

The economy is expected to grow about 6.5% in the State Budget Changes (APBN-P). The number is higher than the 2011 state budget assumption of 6.4%. This was conveyed by Deputy Finance Minister Anny Ratnawati, while Working Meeting (Meeting) with the Commission XI of the House of Representatives (DPR) at the Parliament House Senayan, Jakarta on Wednesday (06/07).

In line with the improving global economy and domestic, there is a change in the estimated sources of growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product). "Sources of GDP growth in 2011 came from public consumption by 4.9%, 5.1% government consumption, PMTB (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) 9.5%, 14.1% of exports and imports 17.3%," explains Wamenkeu. Estimated GDP growth in 2011 will be the highest growth since the crisis of 1997/1998.

According Wamenkeu, is expected to shift the composition of the sources of growth. Rising oil prices in 2011 is estimated to boost the mining sector. While the estimated normal weather conditions and a variety of policies to increase agricultural productivity, is expected to enhance the growth of the agricultural sector.

Meanwhile, the inflation rate in 2011 is expected to be in the range of 6%, higher than the budget assumption for 2011 of 5.3%. The rate of annual inflation in June 2011 reached 5.54% (year on year), or higher than the same period in 2010 amounted to 5.05%. This occurs along with the increase in world commodity prices and continued high global demand.

NES 3-month interest rate will be the reference calculation of debt payments to replace SBI 3 months. Wamenkeu conveyed, during the first six months of 2011, NES 3-month interest rates fluctuate. "At the last auction, on June 21, 2011, interest rates SPN 3 months amounted to 5.44%," he said.

Problem strengthening of the rupiah, Wamenkeu argues, the average value of the rupiah in 2011 estimated at $ Rp8.800/US level. Reinforcement is influenced by several things. First, the strong capital inflows into the domestic market. Then, the increase in direct investment is encouraged by the improving investment climate and macroeconomic stability. Finally, the positive sentiment from the sovereign credit rating that will reach investment grade.

For the price of oil, the Government set a U.S. $ 95/barel in APBN-P 2011. "The average ICP (Indonesia Crude Price) January to June 2011 amounted to U.S. $ 111.0 / barrel, higher than the budget assumption of U.S. $ 80.0 / barrel," said Wamenkeu. He added, the average oil lifting the period December 2010 to May 2011 reached 888 thousand barrels per day (bpd), below the budget target in 2011.

Assumptions 2011
GDB (Trillion Rp)
Inflation (%)
Exchange Rate ($/Rp)
SBI 3 bln (%)
Oil Price (US$/brl)
Oil Lifting (Thousand.brl/day)
Coal Prod. (Million  tons)

GasLifting (MMSCFD)

APBN 2011 (In Trillion)
Gov. Revenue
Tax Revenue
Non Tax Revenue
Cent. Gov. Expenditure
Regional Expenditure


13th salary (Gaji ke-13) paid by Governments to the civil servants (PNS)

The government has prepared to disburse 13th salery this Jul. Policy to give 13th salery to civil servants since the government started Abdul Rahwan Wahin (Gusdur). Many pik that welcomes this policy as it is considered very effective to help the staff of the government to improve their welfare.

13th salery awarded in July or early to know the new school. So it is very helpful for civil servants to send their children to new school. This was confirmed by the Minister of Finance.


Minister of Finance Agus D.W. Martowardojo affirmed that 13th salary paid by Governments to the civil servants (PNS) is a mandate of Law. It was submitted by the Minister of Finance when he was met after the plenary meeting with House of Representatives (DPR) in Parliament House Senayan, Jakarta, Tuesday (05/07).

Minister said, the 13th salary payment is a mandate of Law, so it is Governments’ obligation to conduct it. “Because of Law, we have to prepare the 13th salary,” he said.

Besides that, for smooth implementation, central governments remind local governments to always maintain their budget health, including in the case of 13th salary payment. “So, regions have to maintain their budget health. That there is region that is objected or imposed, it is a consequence that they have to prepare because of 13th salary payment,” he said. 

Minister explained, the regulation regarding 13th salary payment has been finished to discuss. This regulation has been finalized and ready to run on this July. “We are done and it has run this month.


13th salery given for one month salary. If this is converted to a salary increase, then the same with a salary increase of 1 / 12 or by 8.43%. But if the government giveit in  the form of a salary increase of 8:34% then this will cause price increase or inflation which has been used to accompany the increase in salaries of civil servants.

13th salary (Salary to-13) must be paid Earlier

In the month of June is usually the parents are busy looking at schools for their children. At times like that's supposed salery 13th salary is provided at the beginning of June so pns already have the money when looking for schools for their children.