The economy is expected to grow about 6.5% in the State Budget Changes (APBN-P). The number is higher than the 2011 state budget assumption of 6.4%. This was conveyed by Deputy Finance Minister Anny Ratnawati, while Working Meeting (Meeting) with the Commission XI of the House of Representatives (DPR) at the Parliament House Senayan, Jakarta on Wednesday (06/07).
In line with the improving global economy and domestic, there is a change in the estimated sources of growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product). "Sources of GDP growth in 2011 came from public consumption by 4.9%, 5.1% government consumption, PMTB (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) 9.5%, 14.1% of exports and imports 17.3%," explains Wamenkeu. Estimated GDP growth in 2011 will be the highest growth since the crisis of 1997/1998.
According Wamenkeu, is expected to shift the composition of the sources of growth. Rising oil prices in 2011 is estimated to boost the mining sector. While the estimated normal weather conditions and a variety of policies to increase agricultural productivity, is expected to enhance the growth of the agricultural sector.
Meanwhile, the inflation rate in 2011 is expected to be in the range of 6%, higher than the budget assumption for 2011 of 5.3%. The rate of annual inflation in June 2011 reached 5.54% (year on year), or higher than the same period in 2010 amounted to 5.05%. This occurs along with the increase in world commodity prices and continued high global demand.
NES 3-month interest rate will be the reference calculation of debt payments to replace SBI 3 months. Wamenkeu conveyed, during the first six months of 2011, NES 3-month interest rates fluctuate. "At the last auction, on June 21, 2011, interest rates SPN 3 months amounted to 5.44%," he said.
Problem strengthening of the rupiah, Wamenkeu argues, the average value of the rupiah in 2011 estimated at $ Rp8.800/US level. Reinforcement is influenced by several things. First, the strong capital inflows into the domestic market. Then, the increase in direct investment is encouraged by the improving investment climate and macroeconomic stability. Finally, the positive sentiment from the sovereign credit rating that will reach investment grade.
For the price of oil, the Government set a U.S. $ 95/barel in APBN-P 2011. "The average ICP (Indonesia Crude Price) January to June 2011 amounted to U.S. $ 111.0 / barrel, higher than the budget assumption of U.S. $ 80.0 / barrel," said Wamenkeu. He added, the average oil lifting the period December 2010 to May 2011 reached 888 thousand barrels per day (bpd), below the budget target in 2011.
In line with the improving global economy and domestic, there is a change in the estimated sources of growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product). "Sources of GDP growth in 2011 came from public consumption by 4.9%, 5.1% government consumption, PMTB (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) 9.5%, 14.1% of exports and imports 17.3%," explains Wamenkeu. Estimated GDP growth in 2011 will be the highest growth since the crisis of 1997/1998.
According Wamenkeu, is expected to shift the composition of the sources of growth. Rising oil prices in 2011 is estimated to boost the mining sector. While the estimated normal weather conditions and a variety of policies to increase agricultural productivity, is expected to enhance the growth of the agricultural sector.
Meanwhile, the inflation rate in 2011 is expected to be in the range of 6%, higher than the budget assumption for 2011 of 5.3%. The rate of annual inflation in June 2011 reached 5.54% (year on year), or higher than the same period in 2010 amounted to 5.05%. This occurs along with the increase in world commodity prices and continued high global demand.
NES 3-month interest rate will be the reference calculation of debt payments to replace SBI 3 months. Wamenkeu conveyed, during the first six months of 2011, NES 3-month interest rates fluctuate. "At the last auction, on June 21, 2011, interest rates SPN 3 months amounted to 5.44%," he said.
Problem strengthening of the rupiah, Wamenkeu argues, the average value of the rupiah in 2011 estimated at $ Rp8.800/US level. Reinforcement is influenced by several things. First, the strong capital inflows into the domestic market. Then, the increase in direct investment is encouraged by the improving investment climate and macroeconomic stability. Finally, the positive sentiment from the sovereign credit rating that will reach investment grade.
For the price of oil, the Government set a U.S. $ 95/barel in APBN-P 2011. "The average ICP (Indonesia Crude Price) January to June 2011 amounted to U.S. $ 111.0 / barrel, higher than the budget assumption of U.S. $ 80.0 / barrel," said Wamenkeu. He added, the average oil lifting the period December 2010 to May 2011 reached 888 thousand barrels per day (bpd), below the budget target in 2011.
Macroeconomic Assumptions 2011 | |||
GDB (Trillion Rp) | 7.019,9 | ||
Growth(%) | 6,4 | ||
Inflation (%) | 5,3 | ||
Exchange Rate ($/Rp) | 9.250,0 | ||
SBI 3 bln (%) | 6,5 | ||
Oil Price (US$/brl) | 80,0 | ||
Oil Lifting (Thousand.brl/day) | 0.970 | ||
Coal Prod. (Million tons) | |||
GasLifting (MMSCFD) | |||
APBN 2011 (In Trillion) | |||
Gov. Revenue | 1.104,9 | ||
- | Tax Revenue | 850,3 | |
- | Non Tax Revenue | 250,9 | |
- | Grant | 3,7 | |
Expenditure | 1.229,6 | ||
- | Cent. Gov. Expenditure | 836,6 | |
- | Regional Expenditure | 393,0 | |
Financing | 124,7 | ||
- | Domestic | 125,3 | |
- | International | -0,6 | |
Source www.fiskal.depkeu.go.id